According to the latest Cotality Housing Chart Pack (November 2025), Australia’s property market has again proven its resilience, pushing the total value of residential real estate above $12 trillion, more than double what it was just a decade ago.
Here in Melbourne, that strength looks a little different: rather than runaway growth, we’re seeing a market consolidating, where motivated buyers are securing quality homes and investment properties before the next upswing begins.
At Abode Advocacy Group, we’re calling this moment what it is, a window of opportunity for discerning Melbourne buyers.
Melbourne: Stable, Competitive, and Poised for the Next Cycle
Cotality’s data shows Melbourne dwelling values are up 1.6% over the quarter and 3.3% annually, still sitting around 1.4% below the March 2022 peak .
That stability is actually a strength. While Perth (+9.4%) and Brisbane (+10.8%) continue to run hot, Melbourne’s relative affordability and slower growth rate mean there’s breathing room for buyers to negotiate, particularly for established homes in quality school zones or lifestyle pockets across the east and inner north.
We’re seeing solid competition on well-presented properties, but also meaningful buying leverage where vendors are motivated or campaigns are mispriced. It’s a market that rewards due diligence, relationships, and strategy, three areas where our advocacy makes a measurable difference.
Tight Stock, Quick Sales, Low Discounts
The national trend of tight supply is mirrored in Melbourne. Cotality reported that total listings remain 14.8% below last year, and even with a seasonal lift, new listings are still around 3% lower than in 2024 .
Homes are selling fast, with a median of just 26 days on market in Melbourne, compared to a 10-year average of 35 . Vendor discounting has compressed to 3.3%, one of the tightest results nationally. That’s clear evidence of a market where demand outpaces supply, even with higher interest rates.
This combination of limited stock and strong buyer competition is driving more pre-auction offers and private negotiations, an area where our team at Abode Advocacy Group thrives.
Rental Pressures Still Mounting
Melbourne rents have climbed 3.6% over the past year, equating to roughly $27 more per week for the typical property .
While that’s below the pace seen in regional Victoria (+6.1%), it continues to highlight the ongoing supply issue across the city. Vacancy remains tight, yields are sitting around 3.4%, and the balance between tenant demand and new supply isn’t shifting anytime soon.
For investors, that means rental income is holding firm — but with yields compressing as values lift, asset selection and cashflow forecasting have never been more critical.
Construction and Credit: Early Signs of a Turn
Dwelling approvals rose 12% nationally in September, led by a strong 23.7% surge in unit projects .
However, approvals remain below decade averages due to lingering cost pressures and labour shortages. That’s particularly evident in Melbourne, where many medium-density projects are still paused awaiting improved feasibility.
On the finance front, first-home buyer activity ticked up 1.7% and investor lending now accounts for 37.6% of all loan values, with many investors targeting Melbourne’s stabilising yields and long-term growth appeal .
Interest Rates: The Great Pause Continues
Following higher-than-expected September-quarter inflation, the RBA held the cash rate steady at 3.6%, extending its pause .
While long-term fixed rates have crept slightly higher, all major banks are forecasting rate cuts at some point in 2026. That creates a sweet spot for buyers right now: values are steady, borrowing power remains consistent, and competition hasn’t yet reignited across all Melbourne segments.
Abode Advocacy Group’s Take
As buyer’s agents immersed in the Melbourne market every day, we’re seeing three clear takeaways from the latest data:
Melbourne remains value-rich.
Prices are below record highs, yet the fundamentals, jobs, lifestyle, infrastructure, migration, remain world-class.
Supply is tight, and time on market is short.
Buyers need to be prepared, decisive, and guided by data, not emotion.
Opportunities still exist, but not for long.
The combination of modest price growth, improving rental returns, and steady credit conditions makes this one of the most balanced markets we’ve seen in years.
Final Word
Australia’s housing market may have topped $12 trillion, but in Melbourne, the next growth phase is only just forming. For buyers, that means acting strategically, before the next wave of competition hits.
At Abode Advocacy Group, we’re helping clients do just that: uncovering off-market opportunities, conducting thorough due diligence, and negotiating with insight and precision.
